Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering

A Comprehensive Statistical Technique for Forecasting of Extreme Hydrological Situations

Abstract

Khurshid Ahmad*, Bashir Ahmad and Akhtar Alam

Extreme hydrological situations constantly disturb the earth activities and life, to envisage such extreme activities we need a system that alarms well on time and recognized the expected danger; to prepare such systems one must have knowledge of the significant factors that are actively responsible for such extreme situations and we should have a reliable statistical technique that helps to prepare a useful model for such systems. In this paper we investigate the historical data of peak flood from several gauging stations of river Jhelum in Kashmir, India. A reliable estimation technique (L-moment) is applied for parametric estimation of the probability distributions and a reliable testing techniques are used to check the accuracy of fitting of the distribution, in additional to that L-Moment Ratio Diagram (LMRD) is used to impart information about fitting of distribution. Log Pearsons-III distribution shows better results and satisfies tests of distribution fitting, same probability distribution is globally accepted for flood forecasting.