Susceptible, infective, recovered, and hospitalized/isolated individuals are placed on the cells of a n × n square lattice, where in each cell is occupied by a single individual, or is vacant. At discrete time units (typically one day each) all susceptibles and infectives execute a random movement and when a coincidence of the two types occurs at some cell the susceptible is converted to infective status according to some probability in the range 0.03-0.05. Infectives are labeled by the number of days since originally infected. At each time increment the age label of the infectives is increased by one unit. When the label reaches a specified number like 15 or 20 days the infectives recover according to a specified probability, e.g. 0.8, or become isolated/hospitalized. Upon reaching some specified age the latter types either recover or die. Probabilities for the movements and conversions from one status to another are implemented by random number generation. Simulations were carried out to investigate the effect of several probability and age parameters, the size of population (proportional to n × n) and density (related to fraction of occupied cells), and the size of the movements. Mid-term gradual conversion of susceptibles to isolated was explored as an intervention policy. Most simulations were carried out for a 50 × 50 or 100 × 100 lattice.
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