Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Different Methods of Accident Forecast Based on Real Data

Abstract

Gajendran C, Serin VK, Seenu SG, Swati P

Loss of lives through road accidents are increasing day by day as there is increase in the number of motor vehicles on the road which has created a major problem. This paper discusses about three types of accident prediction model such as “System Dynamic Model, Fuzzy logic and Bayesian Method”. Investing in transportation sector leads to betterment of basic infrastructure at the development of a country. The Complex, Dynamic and Non-linear interaction can be understood using system dynamic model. Fuzzy logic deals with occurrence of sets and elements. Fuzzy model compresses of four sub process: Fuzzification, Rule Production, Composition or Aggregation and Defuzzification. Bayesian refer to methods in probability and Statics which has held to model the interaction between road geometry, traffic characteristics and accident frequencies by means of linear regression model.