Journal of Sports Medicine & Doping Studies

Aaron Hermann

Publications

• Research Article
  Anti-Doping Systems in Sports are Doomed to Fail: A Probability and Cost Analysis
  Author(s): Aaron Hermann and Maciej HennebergAaron Hermann and Maciej Henneberg
  
  Objective: Doping in sports now seems to be more widespread despite testing. The objective is to assess the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of the current anti-doping system. Methods: A probability and cost analysis was performed. Using calculations based on official world-level data of positive doping test results, sensitivity and frequency of testing in 93 categories of sport, and estimates of numerical characteristics (frequency, window of detectability, test predictability) Results: A low probability of doping detection was demonstrated; 0.029 for doping once a week by a single random test with average sensitivity (40%) and window of detectability of 48 hours. With 12 tests a year probability of detection of continuous doping is ~33%. To detect 100% of doping in one year 16-50 te.. Read More»
  DOI: 10.4172/2161-0673.1000148

  Abstract PDF