Journal of AIDS & Clinical Research

Paulo Roberto Borges de Souza Júnior

Publications

• Research Article
  Results from a Method for Estimating HIV Incidence Based on the First Cd4 Count among Treatment-NaÃ?Æ?Ã?¯ve Cases: Brazil, 2004-2013
  Author(s): Célia Landmann Szwarcwald, Paulo Roberto Borges de Souza Júnior, Ana Roberta Pati Pascom and Orlando da Costa Ferreira JúniorCélia Landmann Szwarcwald, Paulo Roberto Borges de Souza Júnior, Ana Roberta Pati Pascom and Orlando da Costa Ferreira Júnior
  
  Background: This paper introduces a method to estimate HIV incidence in Brazil using surveillance data. The interest is to estimate the annual lag (time from infection to reporting) distribution among incident cases in a given year with observations arising from a right truncated version of the distribution. Methods: For each treatment-naïve HIV case aged 15 years and over reported from 2004 to 2015 we estimated the time since infection based on a statistical model that relates the first CD4 count to time since infection. Under the assumption the lag distribution is expressed by a logistic probability distribution, we estimated HIV incidence as the upper limiting value of the logistic function. Since this approach requires at least eight observations per year, to estimate HIV incidence in recent years (2009-2013), we used linear regression models to estimate the missing observat.. Read More»
  DOI: 10.4172/2155-6113.1000627

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