Journal of AIDS & Clinical Research

Paulo Roberto de Souza Junior

Publications

• Research Article
  Estimation of the HIV Incidence and of the Number of People Living With HIV/AIDS in Brazil, 2012
  Author(s): Celia Landmann Szwarcwald, Ana Roberta Pati Pascom and Paulo Roberto de Souza JuniorCelia Landmann Szwarcwald, Ana Roberta Pati Pascom and Paulo Roberto de Souza Junior
  
  Introduction: In this study, statistical techniques were applied to reconstruct the historical HIV infection curve using all available surveillance data sources in Brazil, including AIDS reported cases, HIV incident cases in recent years, and AIDS deaths. Using this model, we estimated the HIV incidence and the number of people living with HIV/ AIDS (PLWHA) in Brazil, 2012. Methods: To estimate HIV incidence in the period 2005-2012, we used a new method based on a CD4 count depletion model. From SISCEL information, we estimated the time lag between HIV infection and the date of first CD4 count for each treatment-naïve HIV infected case aged 15 years or older. To estimate the HIV incidence in past years, we used an extended back calculation method. Then, we used the back-calculating estimates of HIV incidence from AIDS reported cases together with the es.. Read More»
  DOI: 10.4172/2155-6113.1000430

  Abstract PDF