Fuzzy logic approach of hydrological modelling

3^rd International Conference on Hydrology & Meteorology

September 15-16, 2014 Hyderabad International Convention Centre, India

A W Jayawardena

Accepted Abstracts: Hydrol Current Res

Abstract :

In recent years, flood disasters resulting from extreme rainfall have been on the increase in many regions of the world. In developed countries, the usual practice of mitigating flood disasters is by structural means which are unaffordable in most developing countries. The alternative then is to look for non-structural means that involve, among other things, early warning systems. The basic technical components of an early warning system involves a measurable input data set that trigger floods, a measurable output data set that quantify the extent of flood and an appropriate mathematical model that transforms the input data set into a corresponding output data set. The crux of this paper is on one type of data driven mathematical models, namely the use of fuzzy logic approach. Fuzzy logic models are conceptually easy to understand, flexible, tolerant to imprecise data and can handle nonlinear functions of arbitrary complexity and built on the experience of experts. This approach is applied to forecast discharges in several flood prone rivers in Sri Lanka, China and Fiji using Mamdani, Larsen and Takagi-Sugeno-Kang Fuzzy (TSK) Inference Systems. Basin averaged daily rainfall and discharges at upstream gauging stations were considered as input data. Comparison of the performance indicators indicated that that the approach was capable of forecasting reasonably accurate downstream discharges. Attempts to develop hybrid models using wavelet decomposition, fuzzy logic and neural networks are also highlighted.

Biography :

A W Jayawardena obtained his PhD degree from the University of London. He is a Chartered Engineer, a Fellow of the UK Institution of Civil Engineers, a Fellow of the Hong Kong Institution of Engineers, and a Life Member of the American Society of Civil Engineers. His research publications (over 165) include a recent published book (Environmental and Hydrological Systems Modelling by Taylor and Francis Group), book chapters, and several journal and conference papers. He was the recipient of the 2013 International Award of the Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources.