Prognostic and developed scenarios of pandemic flu in Georgia

Sophio Beridze, Nino Gugushvili and Nodar skhiladze

: J Antivir Antiretrovir

Abstract :

P andemic (H1N1) 2011 flu realistic picture was developed according to moderate scenario. The highest intensivity of pandemic flu cases was reported in places with population diversity. Duration of epidemic wave provoked by pandemic flu was 6 weeks. The peak of epidemic wave continued during 2 weeks. The incidence rate of disease was high in the under 15 years old then in other age groups. Under 1 year and 1-4 years age groups the numbers of cases were accordingly 8789 and 7167. Compared with seasonal influenza, the highest incidence rate was in age group 20-29 old and the number of cases were - 1954. The incidence rate was lower in 60 years and more age groups, as it was predicted by taking into consideration the circulation period of A(H1N1) virus subgroups. Early influenza-associated hospitalizations and the good management reduced the complications and death rate. Intensive therapy and artificial lung ventilation were used for hospitalized patients accordingly 5% and 1.1%. Death was reported in 20-59 years patients. Influenza was accompanied by other somatic or chronic infections.