The outbreak time distribution feature of the acute infectious disease mainly in asymptomatic infection and the trend prediction skill during the outbreak

Jiatong Zhuo

: J Antivir Antiretrovir

Abstract :

F or the acute infectious disease mainly in symptomatic infection has been described in the text book quite often. However, for those acute infectious disease mainly in asymptomatic infectious was barely presented. Collection of the outbreaks of the polio outbreak in Laibin County, Guangxi, China 1991 the Japanese encephalitis outbreak in Bobai County, Guangxi, China 1999 polio outbreak in Tajikistan in 2010. All these three out breaks experienced 5 generation incubation before the outbreak peak appeared. For the Japanese Encephalitis, the 5 incubations finished within 34, about 7 days for each, For the polio, the 5 incubations finished within 90, about 18 days for each. As acute infectious disease, there is very much apparent different time distribution feature between the those mainly in symptomatic and that mainly in asymptomatic. The skill to predict the trend in the type mainly in asymptomatic infectious disease should be much alerted , each case have to be treat as outbreak and the containment measures have to be taken to prevent outbreak peak occurred. If the containment not in time, the outbreak peak will appeared finally. This is why the WHO?s requirement of the each case of polio has to contain as outbreak. Take each case seriously and contain it timely to prevent outbreak peak is the key skill to the outbreak trend prediction and the outbreak control as well

Biography :

Jiatong Zhuo is a professor and deputy director of Guangxi Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention. He has spent most of his scientific carrier in the children vaccine preventable disease. Under his effort, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region reach the goal of polio free in 2000. He created this new strategy to select high risk county with historic surveillance data and carrying mass campaign in the sub-tropic area to get the measles incidence 0.5/million in since 2010 after his finished his public health policy/management study in Emory in 1998 and make the measles elimination in the forefront of China Dr. Zhuo also was a founder of communicable disease and public health even emergency information delivery and administrative management networks system in Guangxi in 2001 and made the SARS very much timely controlled in the spring of 2003. Dr. Zhuo is the Chinese State Council Special Stiphend Awared scientist and the member of Technical Advise Committee on Immunization of Health Ministry of China